How risky are TIPS as an inflation hedge?

Brian Sullivan, Regional Marketing Director at Putnam InvestmentsTreasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) offer a way to hedge a portfolio against the effects of inflation. But how attractive are TIPS in today’s market environment? To answer that question, let’s first review how TIPS work.

Unlike other bonds, the notional value of TIPS is adjusted twice a year based on changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), one of the most common measures of inflation. Interest payments made to bondholders are then based on the adjusted face value of the bonds. When inflation rises, so do interest payments. But just like traditional bonds, the market value of TIPS is driven by changes in interest rates. When rates increase, the prices of TIPS decline — and with short-term interest rates close to zero, rates are going to eventually increase.

As shown below, because these two forces are both influencing the total returns for TIPS, relatively small changes in interest rates and the CPI can result in dramatic swings in the performance of TIPS from year to year. For investors who own TIPS directly and hold them to maturity, TIPS can be a low-risk method for hedging against changes in the CPI. But for other investors who may own TIPS as part of a broader strategy — in a portfolio built to generate income in retirement, for example — TIPS may be more volatile an investment than is appropriate for investors’ financial goals.

As of 12/31/09.

TIPS are represented by the Barclays Capital U.S. TIPS Index; 3-month T-bills by the BofA/Merrill Lynch U.S. 3-Month Treasury Bill Index; and CPI by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (non-adjusted). Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance of Putnam funds will differ. You cannot invest directly in an index.

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